By: @padresconnect 10/11/2022
Pictured: Padres outfielder Juan Soto (left) standing next to Los Angeles first baseman Freddie Freeman (right).
The year is 2006, the Nintendo Wii was just released in North America, the Billboard Top 100 #1 song was "Bad Day" by Daniel Powter, and the highest grossing box office movie was "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest".
This was also the last time the Padres advanced to the postseason in a non Covid-shortened season. Many (such as every ESPN broadcaster it seems) may feel this means the Friars are playing with house money now that they've made it past the Mets in the Wild Card; however, we say different! Call us optimistic, irrational, or just plain homers but at the end of the day the series is 0-0 and San Diego has the makeup to go toe-to-toe against their intrastate rivals in LA.
San Diego making it past the Dodgers wouldn't be the first time the underdog slayed a triple digit win baseball powerhouse. The Padres just accomplished this very feat in their Wild Card victory over the 101-win New York Mets. (For what it's worth, the Padres finished this year with 89 regular season victories).
Additionally, this Dodger team has a very recent history of losing in the postseason to an underdog as displayed by their NLCS loss last year against the Braves. In 2021, the Dodgers out performed Atlanta by a wide margin in terms of regular season winning percentage (Los Angeles sported a .654 winning percentage while Atlanta was more than 100 points behind at .547) and it didn't matter when it came to postseason results. Favorites and underdogs be damned; that's why we play the game.
Let's get into some quick details and what to expect of this Division series starting Tuesday, October 11.
Rocket Arms Ready to Roll in the Ravine
Pitching matchup for Game 1: Mike Clevinger (SD) vs Julio Urias (LA)
It's an interesting decision for Padres manager Bob Melvin to give the ball to Clev to open the NLDS for a number of reasons. First, Mike hasn't had a particularly successful track record against LA since he joined the Padres. Actually, it's been quite bad to be completely honest with you. Clevinger's career ERA vs LA is 9.47. This, combined with the fact that Clevinger's road ERA in 2022 is 5.60, raises cause for concern. On the bright side, Clevinger's final start of the season was a 6 inning 1 run performance against the White Sox. That, combined with some extra rest for Clevinger, seems to be enough for Melvin to give the ball to the hard throwing right hander with the tie-dye shirt.
On the other side, Urias is one of the betting favorites for the NL Cy Young award this year. For the 2022 season, Urías went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts vs. the Padres and brings with him a host of postseason experience. It's worth noting, however, that the boys in brown and gold already faced DeGrom and Scherzer in the previous series and can bring over some confidence knowing their bats can produce against a team's ace.
Playoff Grisham is Inevitable
Trent Grisham (SD) has kicked off the playoffs with some extra pop in his bat.
During the regular season, Trent Grisham sported an anemic sub .200 batting average that qualified as the league worst for all qualified batters. As the saying goes however, the playoffs are a new season.
In the series against the Mets, Grisham sported a .500 batting average with 2 home runs, 3 RBIs, and 2 walks not to mention a few Gold Glove caliber plays in the outfield. Is he prime Hank Aaron now? We'll see, ask us again after the NLDS.
As a whole, the Padres offense in 3 games against the Mets had a .297 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), 16 RBIs, .333 OBP, and rank third among teams in the postseason with a .753 OPS. While this offensive showing isn't going to rewrite any history books, it still constitutes a productive weekend against the quality arms the Mets had at their disposal.
What are the Dodgers Saying about their Looming Contest vs the Friars?
Padres fans "sports-hate" the Dodgers. And they should!
Any sport is only as good as its rivalries and storylines. Yes, we love seeing amazing athletic feats achieved; however, it's truly the juice of the narratives that keep sports fans coming back for more.
The Padres/Dodgers rivalry has been pretty one sided over the course of history. All time, the Dodgers own a 511-415 record against San Diego. In 2022, that record played out as 15-4 in favor of LA. We almost don't want to include this, but it has to be said: the Dodgers beat the brakes off the Friars in terms of runs scored in 2022. Los Angeles had a whopping 109 runs scored against San Diego with just 47 runs scored for the Padres.
Although it's been such a one-sided affair, the Dodgers are still saying all the right things.
"No one cares that we won 111 games starting tomorrow or what the head-to-head matchups were during the season, it's what you can do tomorrow, the next day, and the next day. I don't know that there's a rhyme or reason for why we played so well [against San Diego], but it needs to continue tomorrow." - Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman.
"The win-loss in the season certainly has been skewed, but I think if you were a part of and really followed each game, they could have went the other way a lot of them" - Dodgers manager Dave Roberts.
There certainly is a certain level of gamesmanship in these responses by Roberts and Freeman, respectively. It'd be bulletin board material if they came out and stated publicly they were going to kick the Padres a** and the Dodgers are too savvy for that type of fodder. However, according to all indications the Dodgers seem to understand this is a momentum driven game and they're facing a team with a lot of it right now.
The bout against Los Angeles will be a battle for sure, but the Padres seem to enjoy having the chip on their shoulder. Reflectively, the 2022 Padres with all their walk offs, come from behind wins, and the Tatis turmoil have established a gritty and competitive identity this season under Bob Melvin. Despite all the star power on this roster, the Friars are embracing the underdog "no body believes in us" mentality and letting it fuel their hunger.
What happens in the NLDS remains to be seen, but we will leave you with the immortal words of Padres catcher Jorge Alfaro: "Let's fucking go, San Diego".
Thank you for reading! Padres Connect exists for the purpose of providing insight, sparking conversation, and discussing the team we all love without having to pay to subscribe. We believe Padres baseball talk should be accessible to everyone and serve as a supplement to following the game we know and love. If there's a topic you'd like us to dive into please shoot us a DM @padresconnect on Twitter or send us an email to padresconnect@gmail.com.
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